With a year to go before the 2020 elections, it’s a good time to dig into what it will take for democrats to flip some of the seats in the Ohio General Assembly and more importantly why we should care about flipping them.
There’s been some ink spilled lately about whether or not Ohio is still a swing state. I think it is. Ohio definitely leans slightly conservative, but it wasn’t that long ago that Ohioans voted for a democrat for president and we had a democratic governor. In the 2018 election, just over 50% of Ohioans voted for current republican governor Mike Dewine, with just under 47% voted for democrat Rich Cordray.
But, looking at the state legislature, you’d guess that Ohio is more republican strongholds Alabama or Mississippi than our swing state neighbors Pennsylvania or Michigan. Check it out:
Source: Ohio Secretary of StateOut of 99 districts, 6 were won by less than 5% of the vote, and 78 were won by more 10%! The reason is because in 2010, Ohio republicans won in a wave (remember the tea party?) and redrew House districts so that a large amount of democrats were pushed into the smallest possible spaces and so that the rest of the districts were as safely republican as possible. Most of the districts are just not competitive by design. Frankly we shouldn’t spend a lot of energy on them.
Of the six competitive districts, democrats won four: districts 28, 37, 6, and 75. Democrats will need to hang on to these districts. The two competitive districts that democrats lost are 43 and 59. Check out the map above to see which districts these were and who democrats ran in that district. These actually-competitive six districts are must-wins for democrats in 2020. If you can help on those campaigns, you should, even if you’re a fairly moderate voter. Here’s why:
2020 is a census another year. Ohio, along with every other state, will draw new districts for Congress and for the state legislature, which means we have an opportunity with the 2020 election to ensure that our elections for the next 10 years are more fair, more competitive, and more representative of what Ohio voters actually want. In order to avoid a repeat of 2010, we need a few more democrats in the Assembly so that when the lines are redrawn, it will be just a little bit harder for the Republican Party to draw districts that favor ultra-conservatives and silence moderate and liberal voices.
Regardless of where you fall on the political spectrum, you should care about how our districts are drawn. We deserve elections that are fair and competitive. It leads to a better debate about the issues and ultimately a higher likelihood that voters’ views will actually be represented in the General Assembly and in Congress. This is a long-term investment. Helping to win these 6 districts now will lead to better elections for the next decade. Liberals, leftists, and moderates should all lend support to whomever runs in Ohio’s only real competitive districts.
This is the first of a few posts/analyses I plan to do ahead of the 2020 Elections. I’d love to hear what you think, and what you’d want to see more of. The best way to get in touch with me is on twitter @kevinverhoff.