Crazy Idea: Let’s build a Rail Network in Ohio!

I generally don’t like the idea of cars. They are highly inefficient, they take up a ton of space, and they cost a lot of money. I’d much rather ride a bike or take a train or bus where I can read while traveling. Nonetheless, we have two cars in my family, and I’d really like to get rid of at least one of them. The trouble is, it’s basically impossible to do so in Ohio, unless you live in Cleveland, Columbus, or Cincinnati, and even then, you’d have to pay a pretty significant time price because of less-than-good public transit, although Columbus has been getting better. Ohio spends ridiculous amounts of money on highways, including the $153 million South Side Mega Fix (which I doubt will actually fix anything because it’s likely to induce more demand, but that’s a separate post).

With all of this money being spent on highways, I couldn’t help but wonder what it would take to build out a decent rail network here in the Buckeye state. Of course, Ohio used to have a really robust rail network before the dawn of the automobile:

That network helped to make Ohio the industrial juggernaut that it was in the 19th and early 20th century. It was around when Ohio produced 8 US presidents, more than any other state (that’s right, more than any other state, Virginia). It helped Ohio connect big cities to small towns when its big cities were among the most exciting places in the world, it allowed Ohio’s farmers to bring their food to market, and it helped to connect the liberal arts colleges that Ohio is well-known for, which produced the talent that drove Ohio’s economy.

Unfortunately, Ohio moved away from this model of transportation when the automobile arrived. Like many other states, we (federal and state governments) started throwing money at highways rather than at railroads (many of which were privately funded, owned, and operated without any subsidy from the state – how many private highways exist now?). We haven’t looked back. Ohio has continued to build roads, effectively subsidizing big industry and sprawl. There’s a good reason that the push for the proposed $6 billion (that number will be important later) Cincinnati bypass is largely supported by home builders. Meanwhile ODOT does not seem to care about the land use and climate change impacts of building a sprawling road network (but I digress…)

A Comprehensive Network

What would a comprehensive rail network look like in Ohio? Well, maybe something like this:

This network, which would use technology and processes which are currently available (unlike the hyperloop), is something we could start building this fiscal year. Here are some of the reasons I like this map:

1. It would serve 23 of Ohio’s 25 largest counties
2. With stops in 44 of Ohio’s counties, it would serve 9.6 Million residents (about 83% of Ohioans).
3. Cleveland to Columbus in about 2.5 hours.
4. Columbus to Cincy in 2 hours.
5. It could be part of a broader regional and national rail network that would connect Ohio to other major cities in the region, along with international connections in Canada.

My back of the envelope estimate is that it’d be somewhere around 1800 miles of rail, which would make it over twice the size of California’s current rail project. But, in contrast with California’s project, the Ohio project could get large portions online quickly, and it could start serving the majority of the state before the project is even completed. Even if the whole project took 20 years, within a decade we could have really good service.

But what about the cost?

Certainly, 1800 miles of rail will not be cheap, but would it really be all that expensive? The original Three-c plan was expected to cost $400 million, approximately $1.6 million per mile (although there are estimates that it cost $3.8 million per mile).

Let’s increase that, just to be safe to $5 million per mile, a grand total $8.98 billion price tag. If we spread it out over 20 years, it comes out to just under $450 million per year. That’s about a 10% increase in ODOT’s annual budget!

Let me repeat that:

To build a comprehensive rail network, all we’d need to do is find 10% in ODOT’s budget for 20 years.

That’s four megafixes per year for twenty years or just one and half Cincinnati bypasses. That’s totally reasonable, although given current federal spending priorities, it would difficult (but not impossible) for ODOT to pull off.

Want to check my numbers? I’ve published them here.

Now, it’s entirely possible that I am way off the mark here, and if I am, I hope someone calls me out (feel free to call me an idiot by tweeting at @kevinverhoff). To be fair, I’m not including the cost of the rolling stock or the workers once the whole network comes online. But even if my construction cost estimates are off by a billion dollars, this is still a reasonable project. Hell, even if I’m off by $9 billion it’s a reasonable project.

This network would help to modernize and integrate Ohio’s economy. It would liberate millions of people from having to own a car (or two!) just to get around. It would also generate a ton of jobs in those 20 years and would spur development across the state.

Imagine someone being able to go from Sandusky to Cleveland for cancer treatments or a heart surgery, without having to pay $8000 per year to own a car. What if someone could go from Lima to Dayton for a business day trip without losing half the day driving because they could work on the train? Students living in Coshocton would be able to live at home and take classes at Ohio State a couple days per week in a way that would help them to save money and get a world class education. Businesses would start to look to Ohio as an innovative place that creates opportunities and links human capital together. More importantly, people would just have more options for getting around. It’s not that expensive, and it would be lifechanging for a lot of Ohioans.

It’s a crazy idea. But, it’s also a really good idea.

Edit (2019-11-27): An earlier version of this made a mistake on ODOT’s annual budget. I thought building this line would only require a 6% increase for 20 years. The increase is closer to 10% for 20 years (still a bargain)